Two defectors from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party have launched a new political faction that opposes exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service, a move that risks undermining the reelection bid of the country's longest-serving leader. The development adds a fresh layer of uncertainty to Israel's already volatile political landscape, with elections scheduled for Oct 27.
A New Party Born From Likud's Ranks
Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, both former Likud Cabinet ministers, officially launched their yet-unnamed party on Aug 6. In a joint announcement, they pledged not to sit in any future government coalition that includes representatives of the ultra-Orthodox parties. This direct challenge to Netanyahu is particularly significant because both men are veteran political figures with deep roots in the Likud movement, and both have held senior ministerial portfolios.
Erdan, who has served as Israel's ambassador to the United Nations and as minister of public security, strategic affairs, and internal affairs, framed the new party as a return to Likud's core values. He said that Likud's current leaders no longer represent the party's traditional voters, whom he described as deeply loyal and committed to the state. Edelstein, a former speaker of the Knesset and minister of health and public diplomacy, emphasized that the new party's call for an equitable conscription law was not an attack on the ultra-Orthodox community but rather a sense of deep responsibility toward the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
The creation of this breakaway party highlights a growing rift within Israeli society over the issue of military conscription, a dispute that has intensified during the ongoing war on multiple fronts. The ultra-Orthodox, known in Hebrew as Haredim, have historically been granted broad exemptions from mandatory military service to pursue Torah study. Decades of political accommodations have made the draft exemptions one of the most emotionally charged and politically explosive issues in Israel.
The Draft Impasse Explained
Israel has mandatory military service for most Jewish citizens, requiring men to serve roughly three years and women about two. However, the ultra-Orthodox community, which now accounts for a rapidly growing share of Israel's population, has long received near-automatic deferrals or exemptions. Successive governments have sought to formalize these arrangements through legislation, but repeated legal challenges and changing political coalitions have left the issue unresolved.
The debate has gained new urgency since the outbreak of the current war. As the IDF mobilizes reservists and suffers casualties on multiple battlefronts, many Israelis have questioned why able-bodied young men from Haredi communities are not sharing the burden. Public opinion polls have consistently shown that a large majority of Jewish Israelis favor ending the blanket exemptions, and the issue has become a rallying point for secular and religious-Zionist voters alike.
Netanyahu's reliance on ultra-Orthodox parties as essential coalition allies has prevented any meaningful reform of the conscription system. The Haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, have made the preservation of draft exemptions a non-negotiable condition for supporting the government. This has placed the prime minister in a difficult position: he must balance the demands of his coalition partners against the growing public anger over the exemptions, especially as IDF casualties mount.
The new breakaway party led by Erdan and Edelstein directly capitalizes on this frustration. By vowing never to form a government with ultra-Orthodox representatives, the party is appealing to right-wing and center-right voters who are unhappy with Netanyahu's concessions to the Haredi community. The question is whether enough of those voters will abandon Likud to make a meaningful difference in the election outcome.
Potential Impact on the Election
A Channel 13 television poll conducted on Aug 5 offers an early indication of the new party's potential impact. The survey predicted that the Erdan-Edelstein party would not perform well enough to cross the electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset. Under Israeli election law, parties must win at least 3.25% of the national vote to secure parliamentary representation, a hurdle that many small factions fail to clear.
However, even if the new party does not win seats itself, it could still shape the electoral arithmetic by drawing votes away from Likud. According to the poll, the presence of the Erdan-Edelstein slate would reduce Likud's representation from 22 seats to 20 seats in the 120-member Knesset. In that scenario, Netanyahu and his traditional allies would control 49 seats, while his main challenger, centrist former general Gadi Eisenkot, would see his Yashar party take 23 seats, with his broader alliance commanding 56 seats.
Those numbers are far from decisive. Neither bloc appears capable of winning the 61 seats needed to form a stable government, meaning the post-election period would likely be marked by intense coalition negotiations, possible deadlock, and the threat of yet another round of elections in a country that has already endured five national votes since 2019.
Still, the poll underscores that the new party could be the difference between Netanyahu clinging to power and his coalition finally collapsing. Previous elections have been defined by razor-thin margins, and even a small shift in votes can have outsized consequences in Israel's fragmented political system. Political analysts are closely watching whether the Erdan-Edelstein party will manage to stay in the race until election day or whether it will eventually merge with another faction to avoid wasting votes.
Broader Political Ramifications
The emergence of the breakaway party is the latest symptom of a deep political and social crisis in Israel. Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for corruption charges, has dominated Israeli politics for decades, serving as prime minister for a cumulative record of more than 15 years. His coalition, widely regarded as the most right-wing and religiously conservative in Israeli history, has pursued a contentious agenda that includes sweeping judicial reforms, expanded Jewish settlement in the West Bank, and a hardline approach to the Palestinian conflict.
The war against Hamas in Gaza and ongoing clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon have further polarized the electorate. The government's handling of the conflict, including the massive intelligence failure that preceded the Oct 7 attacks in 2023, has undermined public confidence in Netanyahu's leadership. Many voters, including traditional Likud supporters, have grown disillusioned with the prime minister and his coalition partners, creating an opening for alternative right-wing and centrist candidates.
Erdan and Edelstein are positioning themselves as responsible, security-focused leaders who can restore faith in the government while addressing the pressing need for a fair and equitable military service system. Both have strong credentials in the security establishment and have maintained relationships with international allies, particularly the United States.
Erdan's tenure as ambassador to the UN gave him a prominent platform to defend Israel against international criticism, while Edelstein has been a vocal advocate for strengthening the country's national institutions. Their new party is seeking to appeal to voters who want to preserve right-wing and national values but are uncomfortable with the corruption allegations hanging over Netanyahu and the influence of ultra-Orthodox parties over national policy.
At the same time, the formation of the party risks splitting the right-wing vote, which historically has benefited left-wing and centrist candidates. Critics of the move argue that Erdan and Edelstein, who only recently left Likud, are motivated by personal ambitions rather than ideological conviction. Some accuse them of seeking revenge against Netanyahu or of attempting to position themselves for leadership after the prime minister's eventual departure.
The new party's name, leadership structure, and candidate slate have yet to be announced, and it remains unclear whether other prominent Likud dissidents will join. A more robust party with additional high-profile figures would be better positioned to surpass the electoral threshold and directly enter the Knesset. For now, the party's immediate impact may be measured less in its own seats and more in the damage it inflicts on Netanyahu's chances of assembling a winning coalition.
Looking ahead, the Israeli political system faces an unpredictable period. Voter fatigue is high, trust in institutions is eroding, and the security situation remains precarious. The Oct 27 election is shaping up to be a referendum not only on Netanyahu's leadership but also on the very nature of Israeli democracy, the role of religion in the state, and the values that should define the nation's future.
Edelstein's speech at the party launch captured the sentiment of those who feel the current government has lost its way. He called for a government that would share the burden of military service fairly while maintaining the Jewish character of the state. Erdan echoed that message, insisting that the new party would fight for the rights of all Israeli citizens and restore dignity to the public sphere.
Whether their appeal resonates with a sufficient number of voters will become clearer in the coming weeks. The campaign is still in its infancy, and Israeli politics has a long history of surprising developments. But one thing is certain: the draft impasse has become a defining issue, and Netanyahu's ability to navigate it will play a central role in determining his political fate.
Source: The Straits Times News